A global pandemic could cost $1 Trillion

first_imgFor now, central bankers and governments continue to bet that the coronavirus will not damage the world economy by much, and perhaps allow it to enjoy a rapid rebound once the illness fades. But that confidence is being tested.While the International Monetary Fund currently reckons the virus will only force it to knock 0.1 percentage point off its 3.3 percent global growth forecast for 2020, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in a Yahoo Finance interview that a pandemic declaration would risk “really downside, dire scenarios.”The head of the World Health Organization called the new cases “deeply concerning,” but said the outbreak isn’t yet a pandemic.Still, the protracted shutdown of Chinese factories that were supposed to be back online and the spread of the virus to South Korea, Iran and Italy’s northern industrial heartland raise the specter of much greater death and disruption. The virus risks tipping Italy into a recession that could hurt the rest of Europe too. The ghastly prospect that the coronavirus outbreak could become the first truly disruptive pandemic of the globalization era is renewing doubts over the stability of the world economy.With the death toll approaching 3,000, over 80,000 cases officially recorded and an outbreak in Italy now shutting down the richest chunk of its economy, some economists are beginning to war game what an untethered outbreak could mean for global growth.Those at Oxford Economics reckon an international health crisis could be enough to wipe more than $1 trillion from global gross domestic product. That would be the economic price tag for a spike in workplace absenteeism, lower productivity, sliding travel, disrupted supply chains and reduced trade and investment.Investors are already nervous, with US stock benchmarks slumping more than 3 percent on Monday and the S&P 500 Index dropping the most since February 2018. South Korea’s economy is being buffered, with consumer confidence plunging the most in five years.UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber is already far more pessimistic than the IMF and warned global growth will experience a massive drop from 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent and China will shrink in the first quarter.“The much larger downside risk is that this continues to be a problem,” the former Bundesbank president told Bloomberg Television in Riyadh, where Group of 20 finance chiefs hinted at collective worries at the dangers of the virus.How to assess the risk is complicated by doubt over how far the coronavirus will travel.In an analysis that predates the current outbreak, the World Bank reckons a destructive pandemic could result in millions of deaths, and points to how even conservative estimates suggest such an experience might destroy as much as 1 percent of global GDP. A disastrous health crisis akin to the 1918 Spanish flu, which may have killed as many as 50 million people, could cost 5 percent of global GDP, the Washington-based lender said in a 2015 report.A March 2016 paper co-authored by former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers likened the annual financial impact of a pandemic flu to the long-term yearly cost of global warming. It calculated that if pandemic deaths were to exceed 700,000 per year, the combined cost to the world economy of premature lives lost and illness, along with lost income, would total 0.7 percent of global income.Oxford Economics’s tally of the impact from a global pandemic stemming from the current outbreak suggests a cost of $1.1 trillion to global GDP, with both the US and euro zone economies suffering recessions in the first half of 2020. It describes such a scenario as a “short but very sharp shock on the world economy.”Aside from containment of the disease, one mitigating factor — and a major unknown for economists modeling the outcome — will be the actions of central banks and governments to cushion the effects. Yet for Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, monetary policy alone would probably be insufficient.“My guess would be you actually can’t solve it with interest rates,” he told Bloomberg Television. “People are worried about their families, worried about their health — 25 basis points doesn’t do it, in terms of encouraging people to go out there and spend.”Topics :last_img read more

Wakelin resigns from Atlantis board

first_img“I have thoroughly enjoyed my time working with the talented team at Atlantis on the groundbreaking Uskmouth project and the rest of their exciting portfolio under development. Namely, Wakelin has accepted the role of chairman of Viridor Group, a British waste company. Atlantis said it has begun the search for a suitable replacement and a further announcement should come in due course. “However, I look forward to monitoring progress closely and to watching the company flourish.” Additionally, Neill believes that Wakelin “has been invaluable in providing guidance to management and fellow board members and has put Atlantis in a very strong position to successfully complete the conversion of its flagship project, Uskmouth and to continue to pioneer and deliver sustainable energy projects across the globe.” “I am delighted for Ian on his appointment as Chairman for the Viridor Group and on behalf of the Atlantis Board, wish him well. He will leave in October but in the interim assist the transition of the Audit Committee to a new chair.center_img Atlantis said that its non-executive director and chair of the Audit Committee Ian Wakelin has resigned from its board. “I would like to thank him for his service, contributions and leadership over the past two years. “I am stepping down to prevent any future conflicts of interest given my new role at Viridor. John Neill, chairman of Simec Atlantis, also stated: Ian Wakelin, non-executive director and chair of the Audit Committee said:last_img read more

Other Sports Empty Space In Trophy Cabinet Is For Olympic Gold: PV Sindhu

first_imgPV Sindhu has been nominated for the Padma Bhushan.PV Sindhu won the World Badminton Championship for the first time.PV Sindhu is currently ranked number five in the world. New Delhi: PV Sindhu had endured a terrible couple of months, with the ace Indian shuttler reaching the final of major badminton tournaments only to suffering crushing losses. Sindhu lost to Carolina Marin in the final of the 2016 Rio Olympics and suffered crushing losses in the 2017 and 2018 World Badminton Championships while also losing at the last stage in the 2018 Commonwealth and Asian Games. However, in the 2019 World Badminton Championship in Basel, Sindhu overcame all the pain and defeated Nozomi Okuhara in the final to become the first Indian shuttler to win the gold medal in the World Badminton Championships. Sindhu, who has been nominated for the Padma Bhushan, has said that the World Badminton Championship win takes care of all the previous losses. However, she is still keen on winning the gold medal in the Olympics and she has used a special provision to ensure she remains motivated. “There is a vacant space (laughs) in my cabinet for that gold. The Olympic qualification is on and this win will give me the confidence to go further. It (World Championships gold) takes care of all those losses. People have been talking about my final phobia, how I take pressure in the finals and I can say I gave the answer with my racquet. But Olympics is a completely different feeling. Rio (Games) and World Championship gave me different memories, but, yeah, one gold medal is missing, so definitely I will work hard for that and would love to see myself win that Olympic gold at Tokyo,” Sindhu said in an interaction with PTI. Also Read | What PV Sindhu said after her historic World Badminton Championship victorySindhu is currently focused on qualifying for the Olympics and she is going to play the China and Korea Open towards the end of September. She said step by step progression is key for her development. Ranked fifth in the World currently, Sindhu has virtually sealed her Olympic qualification.  A higher ranking will help her avoid meeting top players when the draw is made at the Tokyo Games but Sindhu said she is unfazed about standings.Also Read | PV Sindhu seeks improvement in fitness in search of World Badminton Championship gold”Ranking matters because the draw depends on it but I don’t really think about it because if I can play well, it will come up. At the end of the day, you will have to beat these top players again to achieve the gold. I am not very particular about ranking and for now it is Olympics, it is ultimate goal, so after that it will be step by step. Next for me is China, so focusing on that,” Sindhu said.  highlightscenter_img For all the Latest Sports News News, Other Sports News, Download News Nation Android and iOS Mobile Apps.last_img read more

10 best candidates to replace Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech

first_imgMORE: Fired, retired, resigned: Coaching carousel 2018Now, the Yellow Jackets have three questions to ask as they hire a new coach. Do they want to continue using the triple option? Who is the best fit to challenge in the ACC? Who is the best fit to challenge in-state rival Georgia? This job could attract a multitude of different styles as a result.  Here are 10 possible candidates to keep an eye on:Mike Norvell, MemphisNorvell is a good fit. He’s 26-12 with the Tigers, has developed All-American skill-position players and runs an offense that would excite Georgia Tech fans. He has Memphis back in the American Athletic Conference championship, too.Scott Satterfield, Appalachian StateWe’re surprised Satterfield didn’t get more run with the North Carolina job, and this would be a chance to move up after compiling a 50-24 record with Appalachian State. Satterfield is young, successful and runs an exciting offense. This would be a good step up.Neal Brown, TroyBrown is 30-8 the last three years at Troy, and he has led the Trojans to some big-time upsets along the way (LSU in 2017, Nebraska in 2018). He has been patient before taking the next step up, and this is the type of job where he can have success. What coach doesn’t want to recruit with Atlanta as the main recruiting hub?MORE: Fixing conference title games could solidify Playoff for goodMel Tucker, GeorgiaThis would be a bold move to go after Georgia’s defensive coordinator, but Tucker knows the area and seems ready for that first head coaching job. Georgia Tech has hired coaches with NFL backgrounds in the past, and Tucker fits that description. It’s one to get after the Bulldogs.Bill Clark, UABClark has Alabama roots, but it’s impossible not to recognize the job he’s done with UAB the last two seasons, given the circumstances in which the program returned to the FBS. He’s 23-14 in UAB’s last three seasons.Chad Lunsford, Georgia SouthernIf the Yellow Jackets want to stick with option approach, then Lunsford would be an interesting hire. He’s a Georgia native and has led the Eagles to a 9-3 season in his second season. He could maintain good relationships with the high school coaches in the area, but is he the right fit?MORE: Plotting Playoff paths, from chalk to chaosTosh Lupoi, AlabamaWould Georgia Tech be willing to pull yet another assistant off the Nick Saban tree? Lupoi has been a defensive assistant with the Crimson Tide since 2014, and he would be an interesting foil on the recruiting trail to Smart, who has dominated in-state recruiting.Kliff KingsburyThe former Texas Tech coach appears to be in high demand, but a philosophical change of this magnitude on offense would take at least two to three years to materialize. Kingsbury is a bright offensive mind, but his next step might be as a coordinator in the FBS – or even the NFL. Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson stepped down on Wednesday after 11 seasons with the Yellow Jackets.  He compiled an 82-59 record since 2008, and that included four ACC Coastal Division championships and an ACC championship in 2009. Georgia Tech, however, slipped to 21-15 the last three seasons. Tony Elliott, Clemson Elliott would be tough to pry away from an ACC rival in Clemson, but he’s due for a head coaching job and the Yellow Jackets should be interested. Elliott would help make an easy transition within the conference in recruiting circles. MORE: Looking at coaches who returned to former schoolsLane Kiffin, Florida AtlanticLane in the ATL? The headlines would be tremendous, and he was the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Saban before leading FAU to a Conference USA championship in Year 1. The Owls regressed to a 5-7 team, however. This would be a step up, and Kiffin is a bright offensive mind. But is he fit for this kind of rebuild?last_img read more